Get this: The other day I was surfing the net and I saw a link on an official government site "How the Fed Works in Plain English". So I click. "Page cannot be displayed". Ha! I thought so. Which begs the question... When you actually start looking into the massive Federal government who really knows whats going on in the world's largest financial enterprise? Including the politicians.
Anyway, I don't want to beat the dead horse. Onto a real topic.
What ever your goals may be...picking stocks or operating a business, ask yourself this important question: Am I waiting for an improvement in the economy? The hard eyed realist approach to the world is highly appropriate at this time and will continue, as necessary, to be the recurring theme. For example: Have you ever seen a skinny chef that produces a great plate? Ha! Didn't think so.
Buy PNRA (Panera Bread) where the entire management and executive staff eat extensively off the menu prior to roll-out of new offerings. If it doesn't taste like a $12 salad (actual cost $8) ...it's back to the drawing board. Panera has it all, continued sales and profit growth, simple stable non-technical business and no debt to service. I was going to refrain from any reference to the increasing pain in the commercial real estate business... but I can't resist when its comes to taking advantage! Panera is planning to open another 50+ stores this year and they will be driving an ultra hard bargain for those premium sites.
Did you know according to economic research firm Spending Pulse there was only one category of American consumer spending to increase from 2007 to 2008? Restaurants. And not the high end ones.
Buy MCD. I know this is a high saturated fat menu but follow the logic. While Panera continues to conquer the "above median income" consumer, Mcdonalds will take the "below median income" market (which happens to also include 95% of the world's population). I almost forgot the newly unveiled secret. The Angus Burger. This is a formidable weapon. The burger is recession proof. Ask Warren Buffet about burgers. He loves 'em. Good enough for me.
You may look at these stock prices and conclude they have already had their run. Americans will not give up restaurants. And they will demand more value than ever. Restaurants that offer a value proposition, courtesy of a finely tuned supply chain, will flourish.
A note on today's small business. Any business that cannot survive the current economic condition was probably born too late. The fat '90s would have been a better time for "fat" businesses. If you want to see an animal that personifies a business model fit for today's business environment, check out Paivi Lee's cat's new look:
Note: This is only Paivi's cat's "Look". Actual picture to follow as long as it fits my investment theme.
Yes, there will be an end to this recession, but there are clear cut long term implications. Traditional expensive marketing methods are becoming obsolete (witness the latest in a long line of crumbling media moguls Readers Digest filing bankruptcy), online is the future of marketing and it is inexpensive. I do not comment on the potential value of internet related stocks such as Google etc except to say "not interested". Yes, they are the future, but there is considerable question as to which models can be converted to a recurring cash flow stream.
P.S. Don't forget to utilize the poll.
What ever your goals may be...picking stocks or operating a business, ask yourself this important question: Am I waiting for an improvement in the economy? The hard eyed realist approach to the world is highly appropriate at this time and will continue, as necessary, to be the recurring theme. For example: Have you ever seen a skinny chef that produces a great plate? Ha! Didn't think so.
Buy PNRA (Panera Bread) where the entire management and executive staff eat extensively off the menu prior to roll-out of new offerings. If it doesn't taste like a $12 salad (actual cost $8) ...it's back to the drawing board. Panera has it all, continued sales and profit growth, simple stable non-technical business and no debt to service. I was going to refrain from any reference to the increasing pain in the commercial real estate business... but I can't resist when its comes to taking advantage! Panera is planning to open another 50+ stores this year and they will be driving an ultra hard bargain for those premium sites.
Did you know according to economic research firm Spending Pulse there was only one category of American consumer spending to increase from 2007 to 2008? Restaurants. And not the high end ones.
Buy MCD. I know this is a high saturated fat menu but follow the logic. While Panera continues to conquer the "above median income" consumer, Mcdonalds will take the "below median income" market (which happens to also include 95% of the world's population). I almost forgot the newly unveiled secret. The Angus Burger. This is a formidable weapon. The burger is recession proof. Ask Warren Buffet about burgers. He loves 'em. Good enough for me.
You may look at these stock prices and conclude they have already had their run. Americans will not give up restaurants. And they will demand more value than ever. Restaurants that offer a value proposition, courtesy of a finely tuned supply chain, will flourish.
A note on today's small business. Any business that cannot survive the current economic condition was probably born too late. The fat '90s would have been a better time for "fat" businesses. If you want to see an animal that personifies a business model fit for today's business environment, check out Paivi Lee's cat's new look:
Note: This is only Paivi's cat's "Look". Actual picture to follow as long as it fits my investment theme.Yes, there will be an end to this recession, but there are clear cut long term implications. Traditional expensive marketing methods are becoming obsolete (witness the latest in a long line of crumbling media moguls Readers Digest filing bankruptcy), online is the future of marketing and it is inexpensive. I do not comment on the potential value of internet related stocks such as Google etc except to say "not interested". Yes, they are the future, but there is considerable question as to which models can be converted to a recurring cash flow stream.
P.S. Don't forget to utilize the poll.
great blog. I liked the information & humor. keep it up.
ReplyDeleteGold is the only logical investment
ReplyDeleteIf you ask me that cat is ill!
ReplyDeleteI bought MCD @54.90 on 02/22/2008, what a BORING stock! down .16% since '08 Excluding 3.3% per yr or so Divideds
ReplyDeleteSold BEAV yesterday (took my 12% gain and ran), today it goes up 5% arrg.